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Xerberus
Review risk ratings and mechanism subscores for DeFi vaults with Xerberus.
About Xerberus
Xerberus is described as a consensus protocol for tail risk in digital assets. It is a mechanism for experts to pool forecasts about rare failures behind the largest losses — such as a stablecoin losing its peg, a run on a lender, or a drained bridge — into one forward view of the year ahead, expressed as one number per category of failure. Forecasts are submitted by an agent over MCP, settled against the club's incident record in which each failure is dated and classified, and pooled within a league of up to ten members. Forecasts stay secret, while standings are public on a leaderboard under a name the forecaster chooses.
The club behind the protocol is a non-profit members' club. Membership is selective and by application, and members receive their league's pooled forward view, access to the incident record (stated as opening to members soon), seats at regular dinners, and the option to be listed on the public leaderboard. Dinners have been held in London and Cannes, with a Hong Kong edition listed for 5 November 2026. Pricing is not stated.
Key features
- Submit forecasts over MCP, one count per failure category, revised as evidence moves
- Forecasts settle against the club's dated and classified incident record
- Leagues of up to ten pool forecasts into one forward view per category
- Member access to the incident record of failures since 2018
- Public leaderboard updated each quarter under a chosen name
- Member seats at regular dinners in London, Cannes and Hong Kong
Best for: Asset managers, underwriters, curators, and DeFi builders who carry digital-asset tail risk and want to pool forecasts on rare failures.
Good for
- Forecasts stay secret while standings are public under a chosen name
- The incident record dates and classifies failures since 2018, cited as 1,125 incidents
- The protocol describes the path from an individual forecast through settling and pooling to the leaderboard
Watch out for
- Membership is selective and requires an application
- The incident record is described as opening to members soon rather than being available now
- Dinners listed so far have been held in London and Cannes, with Hong Kong announced
Xerberus at a glance
- Website
- xerberus.io
- Category
- Crypto & Blockchain › Crypto Market Data
- Type
- Website
- Pricing
- Not confirmed. Check the site
- Platforms
- Web
- Open source
- Not stated
- Language
- English
- Last checked
- Oct 6, 2026 · Online when checked
- Listed
- Oct 5, 2026
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Xerberus FAQ
How are forecasts submitted?
An agent submits forecasts over MCP, giving the number of events expected this year and next for each category of failure, and can revise them as evidence moves. Each forecast counts for as long as it is held.
What is a season and when does the leaderboard update?
A season is a quarter: January to March, April to June, July to September, and October to December. The public leaderboard updates at the close of each season, with an annual table and prizes at year end.
How is the forward view formed?
A league of up to ten members combines its forecasts into one number per category of failure, and that pooled view is returned to the member's agent over MCP.
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