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Early days of AI - by Elad Gil
This essay considers modern language and diffusion models in the context of earlier AI research and hype cycles.
About Early days of AI - by Elad Gil
Early days of AI (and AI Hype Cycle) is an essay by Elad Gil published on the Elad Blog on August 21, 2023. It argues that large language models, transformers, and diffusion models should be understood as a new era and a discontinuity from earlier machine learning work such as CNN, RNN, and GAN systems, rather than a continuation of it.
The essay traces the milestones that drew attention to the current wave, from GPT-3 in June 2020 to image-generation products like Midjourney and Stable Diffusion and the launch of ChatGPT, and frames adoption in four waves beginning with generative AI-native companies and early startup adopters. It concludes that most large enterprises are still evaluating what the technology means for them and that true enterprise adoption remains many quarters or years away.
Key features
- Argues LLMs, transformers and diffusion models mark a discontinuity from earlier AI waves
- Traces milestones from GPT-3 in 2020 through ChatGPT and GPT-4
- Frames adoption in four waves, from generative AI-native companies onward
- Compares the shift to the arrival of aviation, not faster cars
- Draws on the author's ML work at Google and Twitter and investing experience
Best for: Readers who want an investor-and-operator perspective on how generative AI differs from earlier machine learning hype cycles.
Good for
- Written by someone with hands-on ML product work at Google and Twitter and a decade of ML investing
- Offers a structured four-wave framework for thinking about AI adoption
- Explicitly credits prior ML and deep learning waves while arguing the current one is different
Watch out for
- Presents the author's own argument and anecdotal slides rather than original research data
- Reflects the state of AI only up to its August 2023 publication date
Early days of AI - by Elad Gil at a glance
- Official website
- blog.eladgil.com/p/early-days-of-ai
- Category
- News & Media › Tech News
- Type
- Publication
- Platforms
- Web
- Language
- English
- Last checked
- Oct 6, 2026 · Online when checked
- Listed
- Oct 5, 2026
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Early days of AI - by Elad Gil FAQ
What is the main argument of the essay?
That LLMs, transformers, and diffusion models represent a step change and a new era of technology rather than a continuum with past CNN/RNN/GAN machine learning.
When and where was it published?
It was published by Elad Gil on the Elad Blog on August 21, 2023.
Does the essay say enterprise adoption has peaked?
No. It says most large enterprises are still sorting out what AI means for them and are many quarters or years from true adoption.
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